Covid Sitaution on Bangladesh: Applying SIR model

Mapping with consideration of income bands, it can be visualized that COVID spreads across the country. Hence, people of lower-income bands now started to infect by the virus. Now, the copping mechanism outside the Dhaka and other big cities will be different. There is a hope that the density in the rural area will the major strength but the economic slowdown will be hampered due to the income opportunities shortage in the country. In the meanwhile, the flood across the country will be greatly destroyed the lives and livelihood across the nation. This year duration of flood in longer than recent flood which envisages that the people suffering will be higher in consideration of natural shocks as well as health shocks. 

Upon applying the Suspected Infected Removed (SIR) model for Bangladesh, we found that due to the increase in mobility (based on google recent report), Bangladesh will witness the pick in August. 

As per the model, we are in the pick month of infection though the virus effectiveness became negative. People to people spread rate also started to shrinking which is a positive sign for the early recovery. Another positive thing about COVID is that total active cases to total recovery cases ratio became 0.73. That apparently means that the reproduction rate below 1 confirming the epidemic slowed down.

This is the time to open up the activities except for the school level activities. The precaution should be maintained everywhere.